By Mustapha Nuhu Wali, mni, FCNA, FCCSA
As the farming season approaches, Nigeria finds itself at a critical crossroads. Much of the national conversation has focused on the rising cost of fertilizers, seeds, and other agricultural inputs. While these concerns are valid, they only scratch the surface of a deeper structural challenge confronting the country, particularly Northern Nigeria, where agriculture is both livelihood and lifeline.
The real issue is not simply affordability; it is sustainability.
Farmers across states such as Kano State, Kaduna State, Niger State, and Benue State are not just struggling with high input costs; they are grappling with uncertainty and a broken economic cycle. For a small-scale farmer today, purchasing just one bag of fertilizer requires selling two to three bags of maize produced in the previous season—maize that itself was cultivated at significantly high cost. This reality makes reinvestment into farming increasingly difficult, if not impossible.
Will they be able to access inputs on time? Will insecurity allow them to cultivate their land? And perhaps most importantly, will they be able to sell their produce at a fair price after harvest?
A major concern is policy inconsistency. On one hand, government encourages local production; on the other, it opens the door to food imports through waivers that can undercut local farmers. This contradiction weakens confidence and discourages investment in agriculture.
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There is also the growing impact of global supply dynamics. The ongoing crisis in the Middle East, an important source of nitrogen and petrochemical inputs used in fertilizer production poses a significant risk. Any disruption in supply chains will inevitably translate into higher costs locally.
To some extent, private sector investments have helped cushion the impact. Companies like Indorama Eleme Petrochemicals and Dangote Fertilizer have significantly improved domestic supply of urea and NPK fertilizers. Without these investments, the current situation would likely be far worse.
However, their efforts alone are not sufficient to guarantee long-term sustainability. There is a need to integrate these production gains into a broader national strategy that ensures affordability, accessibility, and efficiency in distribution.
Equally important is the need to revisit the performance of legacy public-sector fertilizer assets, particularly those historically located in Rivers State. If they are not contributing meaningfully, then policy attention should shift toward revamping or restructuring them.
Beyond production, distribution remains a major bottleneck. Inputs often do not reach smallholder farmers on time or at the right price.
At the same time, state interventions remain fragmented. A coordinated regional approach is urgently needed.
But perhaps the most overlooked aspect of the current crisis is its security dimension. When farming becomes unviable, rural populations migrate to urban centres, increasing unemployment and social pressure. Over time, this translates into insecurity.
Nigeria cannot afford to treat agriculture as a seasonal concern. It must be treated as a strategic priority.
First, there must be policy coherence. Agricultural policies must align with trade policies to protect local producers.
Second, domestic production capacity must be strengthened.
Third, distribution systems must be improved.
Fourth, security in farming communities must be addressed.
Finally, smallholder farmers must be supported directly.
Between 2015 and 2017, under Muhammadu Buhari, targeted interventions supported fertilizer blending plants and improved access. That experience offers useful lessons, but the current challenge requires going further.
Nigeria must rethink its agricultural survival strategy. The goal should not just be to survive the next farming season, but to build a system that can withstand shocks and ensure food security.
The stakes are too high for incremental solutions. What is required is bold, coordinated, and forward-looking action.